Updated at 6:19PM - New guidance is forecasting Dorian to arrive as a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane later next week. Obviously these forecasts can change but please monitor the NHC and Tropicaltidbits for updates.
We woke up this morning to discover two likely Tropical Storms developing in the Atlantic. The first one is forming off the coast of Florida and it really doesn’t concern us down here, that is unless you have travel plans up to the SE United States next week. The second is brewing out in the Atlantic and that’s the one that we need to keep our eyes on.
Invest 99L is a different story and it is forecasted to become a tropical storm later today. We’ve been watching this system for a few days now and it didn’t seem to have any gusto until this morning. Only one of the computer models actually forecasted the formation of this storm, the guys running the GFS modeling get an extra donut with their this morning. The potential storm will be named either Dorian or Erin - depending on which of these systems develops first.
This storm is still way out in the Atlantic and about 5 - 7 days away from our neck of the woods. A lot can happen during that time frame. Storms can grow or decrease in size and they also tend to shift on the forecast track. Most of the models have this storm running into dry air and falling apart as it reaches the Leeward Islands. Fingers crossed that they are correct and this thing simply falls apart. As we discussed in our Hurricane Prep article, the best thing to do right now is to keep an eye on the ever changing forecasting. The next 24-48hrs should garner better information on this particular system.
Our friends over at Tropicaltidbits are a great source for tropical storm related weather information.
We’ll keep an eye on this system and post back.